An ordinary die is thrown until the running total of the throws first exceeds 12.
induction/roll
Problem
An ordinary die is thrown until the running total of the throws first exceeds 12. What is the most likely final total that will be obtained?
Show solution
Claim: If you throw a die until the running total exceeds n>=5, a final outcome of n+1 is more likely than any other. Assume we throw an m for a total n+k>n+1, and assume m-k>=0. Now, it is just as likely to throw an m as an m-k+1, which means that the sum n+1 is just as likely as any other. Now consider the series of throws consisting of n-5 1's followed by a 6 and note that we cannot achieve more than an n+1 by changing the last die roll. Hence, a total of n+1 is more likely than any other.